Calgary’s economy is projected to grow by 2.4 per cent in 2026, outpacing the national forecast of 1.6 per cent, as the city continues to leverage its energy sector strength, accelerating innovation economy, and population-driven consumer activity to navigate what has become an unusually complex global trade environment. The projection comes from Calgary Economic Development, which released its annual outlook earlier this year under the banner of “diversification and innovation” — a framing that reflects how fundamentally the city’s economic self-conception has shifted over the past decade.
Alberta as a whole is forecast to post real GDP growth of 2.7 per cent in 2026, according to ATB Financial’s spring 2026 economic outlook, prepared by the bank’s chief economist Mark Parsons. That figure represents an upward revision from the 2.1 per cent forecast published in December 2025, reflecting Alberta’s demonstrated resilience in the face of US-Canada trade tensions that have rattled other provincial economies more severely. Alberta’s energy export infrastructure — particularly the Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline, which now provides direct access to Asian markets — has insulated the province from some of the most damaging effects of potential US tariff pressure on Canadian goods.
Growth Drivers: Energy, Population, and Innovation
Three engines are driving Calgary’s 2026 growth story. The first is the energy sector, which while facing flat capital spending forecasts amid softer oil prices, continues to generate substantial royalty revenue, employment income, and business investment throughout the Calgary metropolitan area. Rising production volumes from Alberta’s oil sands, combined with new TMX pipeline capacity, mean that Alberta producers are moving more product — even if per-barrel margins have compressed.
The second engine is population-driven economic activity. Calgary received more than 100,000 new residents in 2024 — out of 200,000-plus who chose Alberta — making it one of the fastest-growing major cities in Canada by absolute numbers. Those new residents buy groceries, rent apartments, hire tradespeople, visit healthcare providers, and eventually buy homes. Population growth translates directly into consumer spending, and Calgary’s retail, hospitality, healthcare, and construction sectors have all benefited measurably from the influx of new Calgarians over the past three years.
The third engine is the city’s deliberate push into technology and innovation. Calgary Economic Development, led by CEO Brad Pardy, has set a target of creating 187,000 new jobs and contributing $28 billion in economic output through the innovation economy by 2034. Early indicators suggest the trajectory is on track: Calgary’s startup ecosystem attracted significant venture capital in 2025, and companies like Ultimarii, North Vector Dynamics, Mikata Health, and Cashew are generating both economic activity and global attention for a city that was rarely mentioned in the same breath as Toronto, Waterloo, or Vancouver in innovation conversations five years ago.
The Trade Risk: US Tariffs and CUSMA Uncertainty
Calgary’s growth story does not unfold in a vacuum. The most significant external risk facing the Alberta and Calgary economy in 2026 is the trajectory of Canada-US trade relations, which deteriorated significantly in early 2025 and have remained a source of uncertainty for Canadian exporters, manufacturers, and investors throughout the year.
ATB Financial’s Mark Parsons has identified the potential removal or weakening of CUSMA (the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement) exemptions as the single most consequential downside risk to Alberta’s economic forecast. Energy exports from Alberta to the US currently move under preferential tariff arrangements; any change to those arrangements would affect both the volume and the margin on a significant portion of Alberta’s export economy. Calgary businesses that supply the energy sector — engineering firms, equipment manufacturers, logistics companies — would feel the knock-on effects of reduced energy investment if tariff uncertainty suppresses US-bound oil and gas capital flows.
Calgary Economic Development has also cited the cumulative cost of federal regulatory burden on Alberta’s economy: an estimated 1.7 per cent of GDP lost and 1.3 per cent of employment growth foregone due to federal regulatory requirements that the province’s business community has long argued are disproportionately applied to Alberta’s primary industries. The Alberta government’s own economic outlook reflects a similar concern, with provincial officials actively lobbying for regulatory reforms that would allow faster project approvals and lower compliance costs for resource sector companies.
Population Growth Slowing — But Still Positive
One moderating factor in Calgary’s 2026 economic outlook is the deceleration of population growth. ATB Financial projects Alberta’s population to grow by just 1.1 per cent in 2026 — a significant slowdown from the 3-plus per cent annual gains of 2022-2024. The primary driver of this deceleration is reduced federal immigration targets and the partial reversal of non-permanent resident inflows that contributed heavily to interprovincial and international migration into Alberta during the pandemic recovery period.
Slower population growth has mixed implications. On the positive side, it takes pressure off housing and infrastructure that have been stretched by Calgary’s rapid expansion. On the negative side, it reduces the consumer-spending tailwind that has supported retail, hospitality, and service sector employment. The net effect is a modestly lower but still healthy growth trajectory — one that most economic analysts describe as a welcome normalization rather than a cause for concern.
The Long-View Opportunity
The City of Calgary’s Calgary and Region Economic Outlook 2025–2030 frames the city’s medium-term trajectory with cautious optimism. The diversification work begun in earnest after the 2014-2016 oil price collapse has meaningfully reduced Calgary’s vulnerability to any single commodity cycle. Aviation, food processing, tourism, financial services, and technology are all growing as a share of the city’s economic output — not fast enough to replace energy as the dominant sector, but fast enough to create a genuine buffer against the kind of economic shock that Calgary experienced when crude oil crashed below $30 per barrel in early 2016.
For Calgarians — whether residents, business owners, or investors — the 2026 economic picture is one of measured confidence. The risks are real and the global environment is genuinely uncertain. But Calgary enters the year with a diversifying economy, a strong balance sheet of natural resources, a growing innovation sector, and an employment market that, despite a modestly elevated unemployment rate, is creating more than 23,000 net new jobs annually. By most reasonable measures, that is a city moving in the right direction.
For the latest economic indicators and business resources in Calgary, visit Calgary Economic Development and ATB Financial Economics.